Jacoby Ellsbury has been elevated to the top prospect in the Red Sox farm system according to Baseball America’s Jim Callas in his latest Top Ten Prospects rankings. He rose from the number six slot from last year.

Ellsbury was also listed as the “best hitter for average”, “fastest baserunner”, “best athlete” and the “best defensive outfielder” in the piece. Callis draws comparisons between Ellsbury and Johnny Damon, though I’m not in total agreement with this.

Jacoby put up the year Shane Trot characterizes correctly at age 22/23. Damon at age 21 (turning 22 in November) put up a .968 OPS in AA before his promotion to Kansas City where in almost 200 at-bats he put up a .765 OPS (Ellsbury's MLEs were 632 and 686). I see the defensive comps -- fast/weak arm -- but not the offensive comps.

Ellsbury has few holes in his game and is capable of beating teams in a lot of ways. He has excellent makeup and instincts. His best tool is his speed, and it’s evident both on the bases and in center field, where he catches everything hit his way. He has been clocked in 6.55 seconds over 60 yards. He has become more patient, rarely swings and misses and is comfortable hitting with two strikes. His style of play and physical appearance have drawn comparisons to Johnny Damon at a similar age, but scouts say Ellsbury has a better swing. They question whether he’ll grow into the same power, though.

Scouts seem to think that Ellsbury can be a .310/.380/.450 guy while providing gold glove defense in the quirky centerfield of Fenway.

And this piece from The Sporting News:

Keep an eye on Red Sox prospect Jacoby Ellsbury, who could take over for CF Coco Crisp in 2008 or even sometime next season. "He's like a combination of Mark Kotsay and Johnny Damon," a rival scout says of the Arizona Fall League standout. "He can't throw, which reminds you of Damon, but his body is a lot more like Kotsay's. Ellsbury is more live and smoother than early Kotsay. And his arm doesn't impact him that much. He's so smooth and graceful, he can really go get it in center."

Jacoby is also considered the cream of the crop by BaseballHQ’s Deric McKamey in his column (subscription required).

Ellsbury doesn’t have the strongest arm and scouts have even stated that it is below average for a MLB centerfielder but that he compensates with a quick release and sound mechanics.

When I look at Ellsbury, I think of Brett Butler.

I know there's not much chance of a similar career, because Butler was very good (and very underrated I might add). Butler's lowest minor league OPS was .850, and his average minor league OPS was .914. At age 22, Butler put up an .862 in low-A, after going off for over 1.000 OPS in the rookie league. They have similar builds and all, but Butler's plate discipline was much better: 303 bb in 367 minor league games. If Ellsbury becomes 90% of the player Butler was, that's pretty great for us.

It seems that Baseball America has also caught the Trevor Crowe comparison and highlighted the two of them in a recent issue. Crowe admitted that Ellsbury is ahead of him. Here is an excerpt from a scout's take on the two of them:

"Ellsbury, just on a performance-based analysis, has separated himself as a better defensive outfielder," the scout said. "I think Crowe has instincts, but I don't think he has the foot speed necessarily to be an everyday center fielder. I think Crowe has more raw power and will have more power production in the big leagues than Ellsbury, so that probably means he's better suited for one of the corner positions.

"I think Ellsbury is every bit of an everyday center fielder with all-star potential. Just his natural instincts; his natural foot speed to the ball is above-average. I also think that he's a legitimate leadoff guy, where Crowe is more of a No. 3 or 4 guy down the line."

Baseball America's #4 prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Nice review on his plate performance (typical leadoff guy, 70 speed on 80 scale), but says his defense is off the charts. Good reads on hits, speed in outfield, break on balls, etc.

Two trends continue for Ellsbury. First, he is getting picked off or caught stealing too often (7 SB / 3 CS) for someone with his speed. My hope is that he is being asked to steal in situations where it is difficult to steal, or that he is experimenting with different leads off 1B. All CS were against LH pitchers (maybe lack of experience with good lefty moves?).

Second, he has a very significant reverse split at the plate.

Against RH (56 at bats):
.207/.288/.546

Against LH (31):
.419/.486/1.099

This continues a trend from this past season (though not as severe).

When playing against a southpaws in the College World Series, you could notice how well he hit lefty curveballs- his pitch recognition was very good. I don't understand why this doesn't translate to success against righties, but if it ever does he's going to hit for a very high average.

He combines speed, great defense, and the potential to hit for average. Surprisingly, Ellsbury has shown little power in 2006 (IsoP= .115); given his speed some people have expected him to hit more doubles. Ellsbury has also shown problems with getting picked off (several of the 9 CS where PO's), though it is possible that he is being coached to take more aggressive leads. Ellsbury has had leg troubles in both seasons in the organization, missing about 15 games in both years.

Some notes compiled by SoSHerCorsi Combover from David Laurila's interview with Ellsbury for RedSoxNation.net:

#1. Teams look at him as scrappy and hard to get out.
#2. Walks to strikeouts ratio has been good, so he's patient and makes pretty good contact.
#3. Is a leadoff hitter, so he wants to get on any way he can, be it a hit, walk, hit-by-pitch, or error.
#4. Likes to try to extend singles into doubles and doubles into triples.
#5. Likes to use his legs to his advantage.
#6. Hasn't bunted as much as a lot of leadoff guys, and doesn't run out of the box like Ichiro.
#7. Wants to develop some more power and be a well-rounded player.
#8. Believes in working on his weaknesses more than his strengths.
#9. Does use his speed, and while seldom asked to bunt at OSU, at this level he'll probably want to do it more.
#10. Feels he hits breaking pitches pretty well.
#11. Feels good at recognizing pitches and keeping his hands and weight back.
#12. Trusts his hands and will drive the ball the other way.
#13. Strike zone judgment has always come natural.
#14. Disciplined and trusts his eyes.
#15. Good at recognizing pitches out of the hand.
#16. If something is over the outside corner, knows can get his bat on it.
#17. If he has less than two strikes, he'd rather wait for a ball he can do more with.
#18. A big part of hitting is having the confidence to hit with two strikes.
#19. On the bases, he definitely wants the pitcher to know he's there
#20. Wants the pitcher to know that he has to go with fastballs if they're going to throw him out.
#21. Doesn't necessarily take a huge lead.
#22. Wants his lead to be comfortable so that he's not limiting myself by having his weight in the wrong direction. Taking too big of a lead is usually not beneficial, and there's a fine line between the right lead and one that's too big.
#23. Want to be is aggressive and force the other team to make plays.
#24. Feels that he gets pretty good jumps on balls and is willing to sacrifice his body and go hard into the wall if the situation dictates.
#25. Wore a Red Sox cap to all of his games at Oregon State last year for good luck.
#26. Named after a name on an advertisement that his mother saw. The advertiser was a company that sold farm equipment, and the specific ad was for a tractor.
#27. Likes the outdoors, warm weather, and relaxing with his buddies. Also enjoys lake fishing and waffles with applesauce.
#28. Once chased down a deer when he was in high school.

According to SoxProspects.com Jacoby has hauled in the following awards: Red Sox Minor League Base Stealer of the Month (Jul. 2005); 2006 SoxProspects.com Pre-Season All-Star - OF; Carolina League All Star (2006); Eastern League Player of the Week (August 6 - 13, 2006); 2006 SoxProspects.com All-Star - OF; 2006 SoxProspects.com Offensive Player of the Year; 2006 Red Sox Minor League Defensive Player of the Year; 2006 Red Sox Minor League Base Runner of the Year.