Clay Buchholz is ranked as the #2 overall prospect in the Red Sox farm system by Baseball America. According to Jim Callis his 95-mph fastball is at times his fourth best pitch behind his curveball, slider and changeup. Buchholz is also ranked by Baseball America as the fourth best RH pitching prospect in Low-A ball.

Clay is also ranked #2 by BaseballHQ (subscription required). According to BaseballHQ Buchholz has made outstanding progress, harnessing plus movement from his fastball and throwing two quality breaking pitches. His arm action is incredibly smooth, but he needs to repeat delivery on his circle-change. Clay not only threw more strikes, but they were quality strikes, making his upside limitless.

The South Atlantic League managers had Buchholz as the #13 rated prospect, and they didn't see him go up to High-A, start four games (including one in the playoffs), throw 22 IP and fan 33 while allowing only 18 baserunners (13 hits, 5 walks) and 5 runs (3 ER). Which led Baseball America to rank Buccholz just ahead of South Atlantic League #6 prospect, Chris Volstad, when they ranked all RHP prospects. There's a world of difference between a guy who had a real good year in Low-A, and a guy who did that and made so much progress along the way that by the end he was overmatching High-A hitters the way Pedro overmatched the American League in '99-'00. Buchholz was also ranked by Baseball America 16th amongst all RH pitching prospects.

Mike Hazen said in an interview that the Red Sox promote players based on how they achieve certain goals the organization sets for them more so then how their numbers look. For Buchholz he said that improving his fastball command was his goal for him to earn a promotion, noting that his secondary stuff was already "wipeout." The organization seems thrilled with his effort to improve and work hard this year. For most of the year Clay pitched at 90-93 while in Greenville.

Upon the promotion to Wilmington for the playoffs his velocity immediately changed from 90-93 to 94-97 and struck out everyone 20 innings. A couple folks got the chance to speak to Theo Epstein and Jason McLeod after the playoff game he pitched and it sounded like they were very impressed and excited.

Another thing to consider is the type of pitcher that he is. Your typical A ball strike-out pitcher has plus velocity and maybe one breaking pitch that "needs work" (but always "shows promise") and a "developing change-up." Often what separates these guys is those who take the step forward with their secondary stuff and those who don't. Well, for Buchholz, he already throws 4 pitches for strikes (fastball, slider, change, and a curve that was rated the best breaking ball in Low-A) and nobody can seem to decide which of his pitches is his strongest.

Buchholz actually had his BPA go up from .281 to .302 (including his playoff start) after his promotion to High-A. On the other hand, his K/9 went from 10.22 to 13.50, while his BB rate went from 2.53 to 2.05. Is it possible that his High-A K and BB numbers don't represent his talent? Is there any way to get a huge boost in K rate (after adjusting for level, it's huge) and a drop in BB rate by good luck, or by psychological factors? No. The only way to go from a 4.0 to 6.6 K/BB while moving up a level is by pitching better. It is, on reflection and analysis, real rather than random. And this is backed up by the scouting reports that he threw much harder after the promotion.

Now, it is only four games that he showed the ability to command his fastball while throwing it harder. Quite possibly that improved command will come and go over the long run. But he has shown he has the ability. Again, there is a huge difference in upside between a guy who tops out at 93 with the command that Buchholz had in Low-A, and a guy who is capable of throwing 97, at times (at least) with command just as good.

Red Sox RHP Clay Buccholz' Minor League 2006 Chart:


Clay was named the organizations Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

Here are some notes from Buchholz’ interview with RedSoxNation.net’s David Laurila. (Compiled by SoSHer Corsi Combover):

#1. Buchholz is considered a “power pitcher”.
#2. His fastball topped out as high as 97-mph on the radar gun this past year.
#3. Throws a lot of 2-seamers, which he likes to work back over the plate.
#4. He also throws 4-seamers, mostly trying to get hitters to chase the ball.
#5. Also mixes in a curve, slider, and circle-change.
#6. His slider is probably his second best pitch. It has a pretty tight spin and was an out pitch for him this past season.
#7. Throws from two different arm levels. He's over the top a lot, but will drop to more three quarters for his 2-seamers and sliders. The movement is different from each angle, so he'll come from both with all four of my pitches. Uses the lower arm-slot with his 2-seamers and sliders as an out pitch.
#8. Feels he needs to become mentally tougher. All hitters can hit, and he'll need to make the adjustment as his outings become longer.
#9. Confident in what he wants to throw, and will shake off anything.
#10. Takes charting and videotaping seriously, and goes out there with a good idea of what he wants to do.
#11. Watches how hitters are reacting to a pitch, and works off of that. The first time through a line-up he learns a lot.
#12. Gets into a serious mode once the game starts.
#13. Pretty good at pitching out of the stretch and holding runners.
#14. In high school, used to be the type that would pick off guys.
#15. Would throw over and take the spring out of their legs.
#16. Comfortable out of the stretch.
#17. Will use a slide-step and doesn't feel like he loses anything with it.

Here are the awards that Buccholz has garnered according to SoxProspects.com: Carolina League Pitcher of the Week (August 21 - 27, 2006); 2006 SoxProspects.com All-Star - RHSP; 2006 SoxProspects.com Pitcher of the Year; 2006 Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

Additional Resources:
Sox Prospects Player Card
SoSH Wiki Page
First Inning Player Card
Gordon Edes on Buchholz
Pitcher of the Year
Scout.com Profile